Publications

Seasonal Stock Alert Stock Talk

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SBUX, BIIB: Take Two Shots and Call Me in the Morning

Markets enter the week recalibrating interest-rate expectations after the U.S. added just **29,000 jobs in September**, sharply reducing market odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting. Monday’s **ISM Services PMI** will provide an early read on the largest part of the U.S. economy, while Wednesday’s release of the **Fed’s September meeting minutes** could reveal how strongly policymakers remain concerned about inflation following last month’s rate increase. Friday’s preliminary **University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment** survey will add another look at household confidence and inflation expectations. Earnings also begin to pick up, with **Constellation Brands Tuesday, Levi Strauss Wednesday, PepsiCo Thursday, and Delta Air Lines Friday**, giving investors early reads on consumer spending, pricing power, and travel demand ahead of the broader third-quarter earnings season. With Treasury yields still historically elevated and major equity indexes near record territory, the key question this week may be whether softer labor conditions can relieve pressure on rates without simultaneously raising concerns about economic growth…. Read More

ADI: Too Strong

One roll and one huge winner: GILD (136.0%)… Read More

VMRK: Rueful REIT

Apartment/multifamily REITs like VMRK have been notably pressured by higher interest rates generally, as well as by elevated supply of newly completed apartment buildings in 2023–2025 (deliveries peaked near multi-decade highs), which slowed rent growth and pushed out the recovery. By creating a larger, more efficient operator with a stronger balance sheet and greater self-funding capacity, VMRK is better positioned than either AVB or EQR would have been standalone to protect margins, fund growth, and compete in a higher-rate, post-supply-surge environment…. Read More

EXE, HUT, POOL, RNG, UNH: Weak Rolls

Five rolls to start the month of October…. Read More

NUE, WFC: Bank of Steel

With negative September out of the way, two bullish trade ideas: (1) an industry-leading manufacturer capturing massive cyclical upside in structural steel demand, and (2) a dominant domestic banking giant poised for rapid expansion following the June 2025 removal of its restrictive multi-year regulatory asset cap…. Read More

ADI, MMM, ORCL: Three’s Company

Three trade ideas for the first three weekly options expirations in October: bearish on ADI and MMM and bullish on ORCL…. Read More

CBOE, STLD: Options of Steel

Markets close out the third quarter with a **labor-market and inflation gauntlet** that could quickly reshape expectations for interest rates following the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike. Tuesday brings **JOLTS job openings**, followed Wednesday by the **ADP private-payroll report, August PCE inflation, personal spending, and the final estimate of second-quarter GDP**; Thursday adds **ISM manufacturing**, before Friday’s **September employment report** becomes the week’s main event. Earnings are lighter but strategically important, with **CarMax on Tuesday, Micron Wednesday, and Nike and Accenture Thursday**, providing fresh reads on used-car demand, AI and memory-chip spending, discretionary consumers, and enterprise technology investment. The backdrop is especially interesting because major indexes remain near record territory even as performance beneath the surface has weakened, making this week’s jobs and inflation data an important test of whether AI-led market strength can broaden out—or whether higher-rate concerns begin weighing more heavily on the rest of the market…. Read More

EEM, GILD: Too Close for Comfort

Oh well, last-minute rolls are prudent so here they are. On the bright side, one expiring double-your-money winner: DIS (100.0%)… Read More

OMC, SO: Handle Weaklings With Care

Two rolls now and I’ll keep an eye on both GILD and EEM and issue a roll alert closer to market close if necessary…. Read More