Publications

ADBE: On the Mend

Adobe is near the bottom of its recent trading range, so flipping to a put credit spread at strikes near the lower support levels makes sense, especially with seasonality starting to look better. Three expiring winners, including two humongous ones: EEM (130.0%), MMM (127.3%), and ADI (40.9%)… Read More

APH, CBOE: Pinning the Vol on the Connector

Surging global derivatives volume and exponential demand for AI data center hardware provide powerful, secular tailwinds for these two market leaders…. Read More

What Sept. 21 Revealed About Gamma

The options market does not predict the weekend’s headlines, but it does help determine how forcefully the market absorbs them. The weekend of Sept. 19-20 handed investors every excuse to stay in bed. The Fed had just raised rates for the first time in three years, Iran and the United States were trading threats and […]… Read More

DG, W: Retail Reality or Fantasy

Consumers are cutting discretionary spending on big-ticket home furnishings while trading down to low-cost discounters for everyday essentials amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
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Seasonal Stock Alert Stock Talk

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SBUX, BIIB: Take Two Shots and Call Me in the Morning

Markets enter the week recalibrating interest-rate expectations after the U.S. added just **29,000 jobs in September**, sharply reducing market odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting. Monday’s **ISM Services PMI** will provide an early read on the largest part of the U.S. economy, while Wednesday’s release of the **Fed’s September meeting minutes** could reveal how strongly policymakers remain concerned about inflation following last month’s rate increase. Friday’s preliminary **University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment** survey will add another look at household confidence and inflation expectations. Earnings also begin to pick up, with **Constellation Brands Tuesday, Levi Strauss Wednesday, PepsiCo Thursday, and Delta Air Lines Friday**, giving investors early reads on consumer spending, pricing power, and travel demand ahead of the broader third-quarter earnings season. With Treasury yields still historically elevated and major equity indexes near record territory, the key question this week may be whether softer labor conditions can relieve pressure on rates without simultaneously raising concerns about economic growth…. Read More

ADI: Too Strong

One roll and one huge winner: GILD (136.0%)… Read More

VMRK: Rueful REIT

Apartment/multifamily REITs like VMRK have been notably pressured by higher interest rates generally, as well as by elevated supply of newly completed apartment buildings in 2023–2025 (deliveries peaked near multi-decade highs), which slowed rent growth and pushed out the recovery. By creating a larger, more efficient operator with a stronger balance sheet and greater self-funding capacity, VMRK is better positioned than either AVB or EQR would have been standalone to protect margins, fund growth, and compete in a higher-rate, post-supply-surge environment…. Read More

EXE, HUT, POOL, RNG, UNH: Weak Rolls

Five rolls to start the month of October…. Read More

NUE, WFC: Bank of Steel

With negative September out of the way, two bullish trade ideas: (1) an industry-leading manufacturer capturing massive cyclical upside in structural steel demand, and (2) a dominant domestic banking giant poised for rapid expansion following the June 2025 removal of its restrictive multi-year regulatory asset cap…. Read More