Publications

ADI, MMM, ORCL: Three’s Company

Three trade ideas for the first three weekly options expirations in October: bearish on ADI and MMM and bullish on ORCL…. Read More

CBOE, STLD: Options of Steel

Markets close out the third quarter with a **labor-market and inflation gauntlet** that could quickly reshape expectations for interest rates following the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike. Tuesday brings **JOLTS job openings**, followed Wednesday by the **ADP private-payroll report, August PCE inflation, personal spending, and the final estimate of second-quarter GDP**; Thursday adds **ISM manufacturing**, before Friday’s **September employment report** becomes the week’s main event. Earnings are lighter but strategically important, with **CarMax on Tuesday, Micron Wednesday, and Nike and Accenture Thursday**, providing fresh reads on used-car demand, AI and memory-chip spending, discretionary consumers, and enterprise technology investment. The backdrop is especially interesting because major indexes remain near record territory even as performance beneath the surface has weakened, making this week’s jobs and inflation data an important test of whether AI-led market strength can broaden out—or whether higher-rate concerns begin weighing more heavily on the rest of the market…. Read More

EEM, GILD: Too Close for Comfort

Oh well, last-minute rolls are prudent so here they are. On the bright side, one expiring double-your-money winner: DIS (100.0%)… Read More

OMC, SO: Handle Weaklings With Care

Two rolls now and I’ll keep an eye on both GILD and EEM and issue a roll alert closer to market close if necessary…. Read More

AON, CMI, META: Power Shortage

Three rolls and one expiring winner: DIS (31.6%)… Read More

MAR: Roll Out of Bed

The world’s largest hotel chain is bucking its usual September malaise, so it’s time to roll the position and turn bullishly hospitable…. Read More

HUT, TJX: Mining for Markdowns

A speculative bullish play on power scarcity in the AI sector and a much more traditional bullish idea on a discount retailer benefiting from inflation-driven bargain hunting…. Read More

Nobody Told the Data Centers

On Monday, Sept. 14, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) fell 7%, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) fell 6%, Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) fell 7%, Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) fell 4.7%, Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) fell 4.4% and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) fell 3%. The cause was a weekend in which three artificial intelligence (AI) chief executives agreed that their […]… Read More

CBOE, STLD, W: Buy Stock, Sell Put Option, Buy Call/Put

This month’s trades are firmly grounded in seasonal strength and weakness. We’re taking bullish positions in Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), thanks to their 90% and 100% positive seasonality, respectively, between now and late November/early December. On the flip side, Wayfair (W) has zero positive seasonality, or 100% negative seasonality, over the next month, which makes it an excellent bearish hedge. … Read More

EEM, GILD: Faraway Pharmacies

The week after September options expiration is historically one of the most bearish periods of the entire calendar year, so I’m taking the bearish side of an ETF full of bloated Asian technology stocks and a drug company that just posted a 10.5 billion loss…. Read More